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America First: A Policy That May Lead the U.S. Toward Isolation and Decline.
Despite the tax cuts implemented by Donald Trump for individuals and corporations, and his attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), his economic policies—initially admired by some analysts before he took office—have since sparked confusion and concern. After assuming office on January 20, many began to see his decisions as outdated ideas brought into the White House. Chief among these was his decision to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as a similar 25% tariff on imports from the European Union.
Canada and Mexico responded by imposing reciprocal tariffs on American goods. The three nations turned to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in an attempt to resolve the issue. Should these efforts fail, the matter could escalate to the WTO's dispute settlement body.
While Trump's economic vision and trade policies aim to expand domestic production and increase job opportunities—under the pretense of safeguarding national security—they also pose significant risks to the American economy. A study from Yale University, for example, estimates that these tariffs could increase the cost of living by around $2,000 per household. This added financial burden on American families is expected to fuel inflation, making imported goods more expensive.
With inflation on the rise, the U.S. Federal Reserve could face substantial challenges. Rising prices usually require interest rate hikes to control inflation—contrary to Trump's preference for low interest rates. This disconnect between monetary and fiscal policy could further complicate America’s economic landscape and deepen internal economic crises.
Instead of using aggressive measures, the trade deficit could have been addressed through more strategic and cooperative solutions—such as:
Supporting American exports by reducing taxes on export-oriented industries and opening foreign markets through smart, diplomatic negotiations instead of threats and economic blackmail. Or even negotiating with exporting countries to increase their imports from the U.S. in exchange for continued free trade.
For instance, if China exports goods worth $1 billion to the U.S., while the U.S. exports only $600 million in return, a deal could be proposed for China to raise its imports to $800 million—with incentives from the U.S. This would reduce the trade deficit without sacrificing international partnerships or burdening American consumers.
Trump’s policies opted for a faster route—but as the saying goes, “Haste makes waste.” Rather than building a fair and mutually beneficial trade system, the administration chose confrontation and punitive measures, triggering unprecedented global economic tensions.
Meanwhile, as Washington raised trade barriers, China strategically invested in future-oriented sectors such as clean energy, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and quantum computing—paving the way for industrial dominance in the 21st century.
As for Russia, with its substantial military power and strategic influence across regions like the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, it seeks to maintain a strong role in global affairs under President Vladimir Putin. Russia is also striving to innovate in sectors such as space and advanced weaponry. However, internal economic challenges hinder its ability to compete with China in global economic leadership.
If protectionist U.S. policies continue and domestic economic pressure mounts—as is likely due to rising deficits and inflation—other powers like China and Russia could seize the opportunity to expand their global roles.
In a scenario where American policies lead to economic isolation, major nations may shift toward forming economic blocs centered around China and Russia, along with Asian and African partners. Such alliances could threaten the existing global trade system led by the U.S.
We may witness the emergence of a multipolar world order, where U.S. dominance gives way to competing powers. This wouldn’t necessarily signal the collapse of the current system but rather a shift in balance, where multiple powers—such as China and Russia—vie for global leadership in economics and geopolitics.
Given current trends, China appears well-positioned to dominate the global economy in the future, while Russia may exert significant influence geopolitically. However, both nations must overcome internal and external challenges to realize these ambitions. Meanwhile, the United States, despite its struggles, remains a major global force—but if its current trajectory continues, it may gradually cede its dominance to others.
Trump’s reliance on quick fixes and the "America First" ideology may ultimately isolate the U.S. and plunge it into economic crises and stagnation that could be difficult to recover from.
America First may eventually lead America to be alone—and to fall first.
By: Natanya muradchai
