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Why Did Khamenei Agree to Unfair Negotiations?!
Amidst an atmosphere of ambiguity and increasing speculation, indirect negotiations took place between the Iranian regime and the United States on Saturday, April 12, in Muscat, the capital of Oman. While Reuters reported on the possibility of these talks being direct, Abbas Araqchi, the head of the Iranian diplomatic apparatus, insisted on their indirect nature. In a strange justification, some Iranian officials claimed that the large venue and the significant distance between the representatives were evidence of their indirectness! However, beyond these verbal maneuvers, a clear fact emerges: these negotiations are taking place with the green light from Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the regime; he is the same person who described any negotiation with the U.S. on February 8, 2025, as "irrational, unwise, and dishonest." This article seeks to analyze the hidden goals and potential outcomes of this round of dialogue, relying on the ideological and strategic foundations of the regime.
Increasing Pressures and Clear Red Lines
These negotiations come at a time when the Iranian regime is under increasing pressure on domestic, regional, and international levels. From the ongoing escalation of executions, particularly of political prisoners as a shield against uprisings, to attempts to disarm proxy groups in Lebanon and Iraq, suppressing the Houthis in Yemen, and culminating in the crucial statements from the U.S. President on April 7, 2025, regarding preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, all indicate clear red lines and a serious American determination to curb Iran's nuclear program and regional influence. But the fundamental question is: Is the Iranian regime prepared to retreat from its core positions? To answer this question, one must reflect on the strategic principles that govern Khamenei's policies and the regime under his leadership.
Strategic Principles of the Iranian Regime in Negotiations
Based on available analyses, the Iranian regime's negotiation strategy regarding its nuclear program rests on several key principles:
- No Fundamental Concessions: The regime's leaders have repeatedly asserted that they will not abandon the nuclear program, the export of terrorism, or internal repression. Khamenei learned from the fates of Gaddafi and the former Shah of Iran that loosening the grip and surrendering nuclear weapons is not an option; this principle is vital for the regime's survival.
- Ideological Commitment to Exporting Fundamentalism: The policy of spreading terrorism is embedded in the Iranian regime's constitution. The experience over the past 46 years shows that the regime is committed to neither promises nor agreements, to the extent that Khomeini in 1987 permitted breaking contracts and even religious obligations for the sake of the regime's survival, under the title "Preserving the regime is the foremost duty."
- History of Buying Time: In the early 2000s, after the Iranian resistance revealed secret nuclear sites, Khamenei agreed to seal these sites but broke the seals a year later and expanded the nuclear program. In the "nuclear agreement," enrichment reached 60%, and today his advisors openly demand the creation of a nuclear bomb.
- Preserving the Regime at Any Cost: For Khamenei, the survival of the regime and the authority of the "Wilayat al-Faqih" is the "foremost duty." Any decision that prolongs the life of the regime, even for one day, is, in his view, a correct decision.
- Impossibility of a "Win-Win" Agreement: Khamenei believes that negotiations with the U.S. cannot lead to a lasting agreement; America will not swallow the "poison" of arming the Iranian regime with nuclear weaponry, nor will the Iranian regime yield to American demands.
- **The Main Threat**: Khamenei considers internal uprising as the only real danger, referring to it explicitly and repeatedly as "internal sedition," and he has warned his regime's leaders about it. Therefore, he emphasizes repression and looting, but this will ultimately fuel societal anger.
Potential Outcomes of the Negotiations?
Considering these principles, the following scenarios are conceivable regarding the outcomes of the Oman negotiations:
- Main Goal: Buying Time: Indications suggest that the Iranian regime is not seeking a permanent agreement but aims to buy time through diplomatic maneuvers. However, this time it has been exposed, and the room for maneuvering is extremely limited, as Americans and their allies will no longer be deceived by empty promises.
- Inability to Accept American Conditions: Hassan Kazemi Qomi, the regime's former ambassador to Iraq, stated that the U.S. demands the dismantling of the nuclear and missile programs and the proxy groups. Accepting these conditions would represent political suicide for Khamenei, as it would undermine the foundations of his regime and accelerate the risk of a widespread uprising.
Levant: Mir Mohammadi System
